Probability distributions and statistical inference for axial data

Observations on axes which lack information on the direction of propagation are referred to as axial data. Such data are often encountered in enviromental sciences, e.g. observations on propagations of cracks or on faults in mining walls. Even though such observations are recorded as angles, circular probability models are inappropriate for such data since the constraint that observations lie only in [0, π) needs to be enforced. Probability models for such axial data are argued here to have a general structure stemming from that of wrapping a circular distribution on a semi-circle. In particular, we consider the most popular circular model, the von Mises or circular normal distribution, and derive the corresponding axial normal distribution. Certain properties of this distribution are established. Maximum likelihood estimation of its parameters are shown to be surprisingly, in contrast to trigonometric moment estimation, numerically quite appealing. Finally we illustrate our results by several real life axial data sets. Received: September 2004/ Revised: December 2004     

A role forAmanita muscaria L. in the circulation of cadmium and vanadium in a non-polluted woodland

The sporophore of the fungusAmanita muscaria L. contains greatiy elevated levels of cadmium (29.9 g g^–1 dwt) and vanadium (344.9 g g^–1 dwt) in comparison with the soil in a birch woodland (total (HNO₃-extractabie Cd 0.4 g g^–1 dwt, V 11.7 g g^–1 dwt). The significance of this remarkable concentration of normally rare and dispersed elements in terms of their circulation in the woodland has been investigated. Both elements are released from sporophore tissue in a form which can be taken up by a test plant (lettuce), cultivated in the woodland soil amended with different quantities of sporophore tissue, Cadmium levels in all plant tissues were elevated in comparison to the non-amended controls; only root vanadium levels responded to the amendment of the soil. The results are discussed in terms of their significance for the natural cycling of both elements. It is calculated that an abundant population of sporophores could circulate 1.4% of the total cadmium and 0.65% of the total vanadium pool found in the litter layer and 0–5 cm soil horizon in the sampled woodland over a period of 14 days (mean life span of a sporophore).     

Impending Recovery of Kirtland's Warbler: Case Study in the Effectiveness of the Endangered Species Act

Dendroica kirtlandii ). This particular recovery program actually began before passage of the federal ESA, when biologists alerted the Michigan Department of Natural Resources of the perilously low population of this bird, which only breeds under jack pine (Pinus banksiana) trees in Michigan. By the time an ESA Recovery Team was formed for this bird in 1975 (the first such team created under the ESA), a legacy of consensus and interagency cooperation was well established. This has led to successful efforts at habitat management and control of its nest parasite, the brown-headed cowbird (Molothrus ater). While the Kirtland's warbler is not yet recovered, its population is near an all-time high, and its recovery is possible within the next decade. When (and if) this happens, it will be clearly attributable to this successful model of federalism for natural resources management.     

Urban stormwater quality control analysis with detention ponds.

This paper presents methodologies for the development of stormwater quality control measures based on the derived probability distribution approach. These stormwater control measures, such as the fraction of pollutant removed from storage facilities, are closed-form analytical models and can be effectively used to evaluate pollutant loads to receiving waters. In this study, a simple form of rainfall-runoff transformation with lumped parameters is first extended to take into account the spatial variations in model parameters. Second, the infiltration process is further incorporated to the rainfall-runoff transformation. This study demonstrates that analytical models can be developed with various levels of complexity based on different hydrologic considerations. The performance of the analytical models is evaluated in a case study, and the results indicate that, with an appropriately formulated rainfall-runoff transformation, analytical stormwater runoff models are capable of providing comparable results to continuous simulation models in the evaluation of the long-term performance of storage facilities.     

Effects of invertebrate predators and a pesticide on temporary pond microcosms used for aquatic toxicity testing

The effects of increased trophic complexity, through the addition of predatory notonectids (Anisops deanei), on temporary pond microcosms used for aquatic toxicity testing were studied. Replicate microcosms were established using sediment from a dried temporary pond, and treated with one of four concentrations of the organochlorine pesticide endosulfan (0, 1, 10 or 50 microg/L), in the presence or absence of six A. deanei. The tanks were sampled regularly for nine weeks following the addition of the predators and the entire contents of each tank counted after 12 weeks. Analysis using non-metric multidimensional scaling (MDS) and non-parametric MANOVA showed that both Anisops and endosulfan at concentrations >10 microg/L significantly altered community structure. However, an interaction between the effects of Anisops and the effects of endosulfan was not detected. The addition of Anisops did not increase the variability of response and thus did not reduce the sensitivity of the test method.     

A contact sex pheromone component of the emerald ash borer Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae)

Analyses of the elytral hydrocarbons from male and female emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, that were freshly emerged vs. sexually mature (>10 days old) revealed a female-specific compound, 9-methyl-pentacosane (9-Me-C₂₅), only present in sexually mature females. This material was synthesized by the Wittig reaction of 2-decanone with (n-hexadecyl)-triphenylphosphonium bromide followed by catalytic reduction to yield racemic 9-Me C₂₅, which matched the natural compound by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (retention time and EI mass spectrum). In field bioassays with freeze-killed sexually mature A. planipennis females, feral males spent significantly more time in contact and attempting copulation with unwashed females than with females that had been washed in n-hexane to remove the cuticular lipids. Hexane-washed females to which 9-Me-C₂₅ had been reapplied elicited similar contact time and percentage of time attempting copulation as unwashed females, indicating that 9-methyl-pentacosane is a contact sex pheromone component of A. planipennis. This is the first contact sex pheromone identified in the Buprestidae.     

The public health system response to the 2008 Sichuan province earthquake: a literature review and interviews

This paper describes and analyses the public health system response to the deadly earthquake in Sichuan province, China, in May 2008. Drawing on an experiential learning project consisting of a literature review and field research, including a series of interviews with medical and public health professionals, policy‐makers and first responders, a conceptual framework was developed to describe the response. This approach emphasises the pre‐existing preparedness level of the medical and public health systems, as well as social, economic and geo‐political factors that had an impact on mitigation efforts. This framework was used to conduct post‐disaster analyses addressing major response issues and examining methods employed during the public health response to the disaster. This framework could be used to describe and analyse the emergency response to other disasters.     

Decoupling of component and ensemble density feedbacks in birds and mammals

A component density feedback represents the effect of change in population size on single demographic rates, whereas an ensemble density feedback captures that effect on the overall growth rate of a population. Given that a population's growth rate is a synthesis of the interplay of all demographic rates operating in a population, we test the hypothesis that the strength of ensemble density feedback must augment with increasing strength of component density feedback, using long-term censuses of population size, fertility, and survival rates of 109 bird and mammal populations (97 species). We found that compensatory and depensatory component feedbacks were common (each detected in approximately 50% of the demographic rates). However, component feedback strength only explained <10% of the variation in ensemble feedback strength. To explain why, we illustrate the different sources of decoupling between component and ensemble feedbacks. We argue that the management of anthropogenic impacts on populations using component feedbacks alone is ill-advised, just as managing on the basis of ensemble feedbacks without a mechanistic understanding of the contributions made by its components and environmental variability can lead to suboptimal decisions.     

Unique zinc mass in mandibles separates drywood termites from other groups of termites

Previously, the presence of metals in arthropod mandibles has been linked with harder cuticle, and in termites, a 20% increase in hardness has been found for mandibles containing major quantities of zinc. The current study utilises electron microscopy and energy-dispersive X-ray microanalysis to assess incidence and abundance of metals in all extant subfamilies of the Isoptera. The basal clades contain no zinc and little to no manganese in the cutting edge of the mandible cuticle, suggesting that these states are ancestral for termites. However, experimentation with mandibles in vitro indicates the presence of some elements of the cuticular biochemistry necessary to enable uptake of zinc. The Termopsidae, Serritermitidae, Rhinotermitidae and Termitidae all contain minor quantities of manganese, while trace to minor quantities of zinc occur in all except the Serritermitidae. In contrast, all Kalotermitidae or drywood termites contain major levels of zinc in the mandible edge. Diet and life type are explored as links to metal profiles across the termites. The presence of harder mandibles in the drywood termites may be related to lack of access to free water with which to moisten wood. Scratch tests were applied to a set of mandibles. The coefficient of friction for Cryptotermes primus (Kalotermitidae) mandibles, when compared with species from other subfamilies, indicates that zinc-containing mandibles are likely to be more scratch resistant.